FTAI Aviation's $1.1B EBITDA Forecast Sparks Analyst Confidence

Stifel Upgrades FTAI Aviation Price Target Amid Record Growth Projections

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Dec 31, 2024
Summary
  • FTAI Aviation's strategic aircraft sales and robust EBITDA outlook position it for substantial growth, analysts say
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Stifel (SF, Financial) analysts have reaffirmed their bullish stance on FTAI Aviation (FTAI, Financial) and raised their price target for the stock to $167 from $156. The optimism is tied to the company's stout 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $1.1B to $1.15B, which beats the consensus of $1.065B. Significant contributions from Aviation Leasing ($500 million) and Aerospace ($600 million to $650 million) have resulted in an upgraded outlook for this company.

The news comes as FTAI joins Strategic Capital, an initiative planned for the sale of 46 on-lease narrowbody aircraft for $549 million. It's a move to lower capital intensity (while still maintaining operational control through its module factory and V2500 MRE business).

'Stifel's analysis suggests FTAI Aviation's strategic steps are likely to give the stock a near-term price floor, making that stock a compelling buy opportunity,' Stifel's analysis suggests. However, its beta of 2.1 could tip the stock into what Latin America's traders call the mama pinta—the ‘mama pinta' of volatility, though the stock has an impressive 176.4% return over the past year.

Worthy of note is FTAI's recent partnership with Chromalloy, which was just strengthened with FAA approval for a critical engine component. The ambitious nature of the company's new aircraft partnerships will see $3 billion per annum of new aircraft deployment.

Other analysts, like BTIG and Compass Point, echo Stifel's view that FTAI stands in a strong operational position and has market potential. Investors expect that as it charts its ambitious plans, the company will shoulder its growth trajectory and stellar performance in the dynamic aviation sector.

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