As 2024 concludes, an unusual investment trend emerges in the U.S. agricultural futures market: speculators are bullish on corn futures despite record-breaking yields. U.S. corn production increased by 3% compared to last year, yet domestic supply is expected to slightly decrease by August 2025. This shift has led speculators to move from a record bearish stance in July to bullish by November, with net long positions reaching a two-year high by mid-December.
In contrast, soybean futures hit a four-year low due to Brazil's upcoming bumper harvest, and wheat futures hover near recent lows despite tight global supply. Soybean and soymeal prices have dropped significantly, with soybeans falling 26% this year, marking the largest annual decline in two decades.
U.S. soybean exports to China have hit a four-year low, with Brazil's ample supply meeting China's demand. Meanwhile, wheat inventories in major exporting countries are projected to hit a 17-year low by mid-2025, yet prices remain low due to Russia's increased exports.
