Concerns about a U.S. recession have lingered among investors, but Apollo Global Management's Chief Economist, Torsten Sløk, reports a 0% chance of a recession in 2025. Instead, he highlights 12 global market risks, excluding severe economic downturns.
The U.S. economy is expected to grow nearly 3% in 2024, adding about 2 million jobs, defying previous slowdown predictions. Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist, Jan Hatzius, attributes this to robust consumer spending.
Sløk identifies tariffs as a major risk, with a 90% chance of implementation by the incoming Trump administration, potentially affecting allies like Canada and Mexico. Additionally, NVIDIA's (NVDA, Financial) performance could disappoint investors due to high expectations, posing another significant risk.
Potential inflation rebound could prompt Fed rate hikes, surprising markets anticipating rate cuts in 2025. Sløk estimates a 40% chance of this scenario, which could lead to a rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields above 5%.
