During a quiet trading session, WTI crude oil futures experienced slight gains. With major participants absent, trading volume was significantly below average, making prices susceptible to technical influences. Investors are advised to exercise caution and avoid chasing trends in the current market weakness.
The easing of supply disruption concerns in the Middle East has led to a potential weekly decline of over 3% in oil prices. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has reduced geopolitical risk premiums, a key factor in the recent price drop.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global oil surplus exceeding 1 million barrels per day by 2025, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Analysts predict average oil prices may fall below 2024 levels. Market attention is on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, expected to extend production cuts, though long-term oversupply may cap price increases.
U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.844 million barrels, surpassing expectations of 605,000 barrels, indicating strong demand and supporting bullish sentiment.
Geopolitical developments and the OPEC+ meeting will be key drivers in the coming weeks, with downside risks prevailing but strong U.S. demand potentially providing support.
