With easing interest rates, slowing inflation, looming tariff threats, and a strong festive spirit, the U.S. is poised for a record-breaking shopping season this year. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), approximately 183.4 million Americans plan to shop in stores and online from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. This figure surpasses the 2023 record of 182 million and is 18.1 million more than five years ago.
Black Friday remains the most popular shopping day, with 131.7 million expected shoppers, 65% of whom will visit physical stores. This trend underscores the resilience of U.S. consumers, with holiday spending in November and December projected to reach record levels, growing 2.5% to 3.5% year-over-year to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. Retailers plan to hire 400,000 to 500,000 seasonal workers to meet demand.
The U.S. retail sector has performed strongly, with the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector up 25% year-to-date. Companies like Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), and Tapestry (TPR, Financial) led gains, while the Consumer Staples sector saw an 18% return, driven by Walmart (WMT), Costco (COST), and Kellogg (K). However, sector performance varies, as Walmart's stock recently hit a new high, whereas Target (TGT) dropped 20% after Q3 earnings.
