The American Automobile Association (AAA) predicts that the average gasoline price in the U.S. may fall below the nostalgic benchmark of $3 per gallon before Thanksgiving, coinciding with a resurgence in holiday travel to pre-pandemic levels. Currently, the average retail fuel price in the U.S. has reached its lowest level since January and is only a few cents higher than in 2021. With WTI crude oil futures hovering near their lowest levels since September last year, gasoline prices are likely to decrease further.
AAA anticipates that 71.7 million people will drive at least 50 miles from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving through the following Monday. This figure surpasses last year’s numbers by 1.3 million and is the highest since the outbreak of COVID-19. Although the influx of drivers briefly boosts demand, the national average price for gasoline could drop below $3 per gallon before the peak holiday travel period.
GasBuddy's petroleum analysis chief, Patrick DeHaan, shares a similar outlook. Last Thanksgiving, the average U.S. gasoline price was $3.26 per gallon. This year, AAA suggests that in over a dozen states east of the Rocky Mountains, prices could range between $2.25 to $2.50 per gallon. Last weekend, the national average was at $3.08 per gallon.
DeHaan noted, "For most Americans, the situation at the pump is beginning to normalize," attributing the year-over-year decline to macroeconomic demand slowing due to Federal Reserve rate hikes. "In some southern regions where gasoline taxes are low, we see prices that evoke memories of better times."
