US Electric Vehicle Market Growth Slows as Hybrids Gain Popularity

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Nov 18, 2024
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According to data from S&P Global Mobility, new electric vehicle (EV) registrations in the U.S. increased by just 1.3% in September, outpacing the overall light vehicle market growth. Despite the EV market's continued expansion, competition has intensified, with some consumers shifting towards hybrid vehicles. Major EV brands like Tesla and Rivian experienced double-digit declines in registrations.

Overall, the registration numbers for light vehicles, regardless of fuel type, rose by 0.7% to 1.3 million units. Pure electric vehicle registrations reached 110,339, slightly up from 108,889 in the previous year, maintaining an 8.6% share of the total light vehicle market.

In the first nine months of the year, the U.S. EV registrations grew by 8.8% to 920,426 units, which was below earlier expectations. EV market share in the light vehicle segment increased to 7.8%, up from 7.3% a year ago.

S&P Global analyst Tom Libby forecasts that EV registrations may not see significant growth in the next five to ten years unless circumstances change. He mentioned that if emission standards are relaxed, it might ease EV sales pressure temporarily, but low emissions remain an inevitable trend.

Tesla (TSLA, Financial) saw a 10% drop in September registrations to 52,637 units, reducing its EV market share from 54% to 48%. For January through September, Tesla's market share decreased from 58% to 49%. While older Tesla models saw declines, the Cybertruck led registrations among all electric pickups with 4,278 units.

Libby suggests that Tesla's CEO Elon Musk's political engagements could have negatively impacted Tesla, although this effect is hard to quantify. Tesla's registrations in California fell by 13% while the state's overall EV market grew.

Chevrolet emerged as the second-largest EV brand in September, with a 40% increase in registrations to 7,363 units. Two Chevrolet models, the Equinox EV and Blazer EV, ranked in the top ten for registrations that month. Meanwhile, Rivian's registrations dropped by 24% to 3,754 units due to reduced consumer demand for expensive models and part shortages.

While the Tesla Cybertruck, Chevrolet Equinox EV, and Honda Prologue each had fewer than 5,000 registrations, their relative success indicates a consumer preference for new EV models from favorite brands.

Libby pointed out the recent slowdown in the EV market is partly due to the growing popularity of hybrid vehicles made by manufacturers like Toyota and Honda. These hybrids offer a combination of affordability and practicality, meeting high consumer demand and countering issues faced by EVs such as price premiums and charging infrastructure limitations.

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I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.