Goldman Sachs has projected that due to central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may reach unprecedented levels next year. The firm has highlighted gold as a top commodity trade for 2025, anticipating further increases during Trump's presidency. Analysts, including Daan Struyven, reiterated a gold price target of $3,000 per ounce by December 2025. This prediction is driven by increased central bank demand and the cyclical effect of funds flowing into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.
This year, gold has shown a robust recovery, setting new record highs before retreating after Trump's election win, which boosted the dollar. The surge in official sector purchases and the Fed's shift to a more accommodative policy have supported gold's ascent. Goldman Sachs mentioned that the Trump administration might also favorably impact gold prices.
Rising trade tensions could invigorate speculative positions in gold. Additionally, mounting concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy may further bolster gold prices, with central banks, particularly those with considerable U.S. treasury reserves, possibly opting to accumulate more gold.
In other forecasts, Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude oil to trade between $70 and $85 per barrel next year. However, there is a short-term upside risk if the Trump administration curtails Iran's oil flow. Analysts noted that base metals are preferred over ferrous metals, and European natural gas faces short-term weather-related risks. They mentioned that the new U.S. administration could heighten risks to Iranian oil supply, with potential sanctions under the "maximum pressure" policy and possible increased U.S. support for Israel, which might disrupt Iranian oil assets.
