As the 2024 U.S. presidential election intensifies between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the political betting market is experiencing unprecedented growth. Platforms that allow users to bet on political events, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, have seen explosive popularity. In response, Interactive Brokers launched a series of election betting contracts recently, and Robinhood has also entered this burgeoning market.
Robinhood announced that eligible U.S. citizens can now trade election prediction contracts, allowing them to bet on whether Trump or Harris will win the election. Kalshi, which recently won a legal battle to offer its betting platform to U.S. citizens, has already attracted over $100 million in bets related to the election outcome following the court's approval.
Kalshi's popularity has surged, becoming the seventh most downloaded free app in the Apple App Store, surpassing well-known financial apps like Cash App, PayPal, and Venmo. CEO Tarek Mansour aims for the app to reach the number one position before election day, citing the exponential demand growth.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, which is not open to U.S. citizens, has seen its trading volume grow significantly. According to The Block, Polymarket's betting volume in October approached $2 billion, a dramatic increase from $533 million in September and far surpassing previous months' volumes.
The odds on Polymarket show a significant leaning towards Trump winning the election, with a current 66% probability compared to Harris's 34%. Analysts and scholars believe that betting odds may better reflect voter sentiment than traditional polls.
