JPMorgan Chase's (JPM, Financial) CEO Jamie Dimon addressed concerns about the bank's net interest income (NII) projections for 2025 during a recent earnings call. He emphasized that forecasting NII is complex and influenced by uncontrollable factors, making it difficult to provide exact numbers.
When UBS analyst Erika Najarian raised questions about the bank's 2025 NII expectations, she predicted a 6% quarter-over-quarter drop in the fourth quarter and anticipated a year-over-year decline in 2025. Najarian noted that market expectations might still decrease, given potential yield curve impacts.
Dimon expressed reluctance to speculate on future NII figures, noting that next year's projections are expected to be below $87 billion, though the exact impact remains uncertain. Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck defended her inquiries about NII, highlighting its significance to the bank's revenue.
In a September meeting, JPMorgan's President Daniel Pinto signaled that 2025 NII expectations might be too high. The bank's latest earnings report projected NII excluding market impacts to be around $22.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from $23.4 billion in the third quarter.
CFO Jeremy Barnum acknowledged that the consensus estimate of $87 billion for 2025 NII appears somewhat unrealistic but remains within an approximate range. Dimon reiterated that while the 2025 NII figure will fall below $87 billion, the extent is unclear.
Despite the uncertain outlook for 2025 NII, investors reacted positively to JPMorgan's third-quarter earnings, which surpassed expectations. The company's stock rose 4.4% in a single session, marking its largest gain since April 2023.
