Scott Rubner, Managing Director and Tactics Expert at Goldman Sachs, anticipates the S&P 500 index could exceed 6000 points by the end of December, surpassing his end-of-year target. However, he notes that the index must first endure some volatility this month.
Rubner forecasts a year-end rally in the U.S. stock market beginning from October 28. Historical data since 1928 indicates that seasonal unfavorable factors start to dissipate after October 27. Additionally, stock prices typically rise following U.S. presidential elections. Corporate stock buybacks and earnings are likely to be significant contributing factors.
Despite these predictions, Rubner remains tactically bearish on the U.S. stock market for the upcoming three weeks. He notes that systematic risk exposure of trend-following funds is currently long, which asymmetrically biases the market towards a downside.
