Optimism about Chinese securities markets overseas is on the rise

Dongzi Securities Big Data Public Opinion Research Report
Release Date
2024–10–14 9:25:00

• Dongzi Securities Big Data Indicator (I) — Overseas Chinese Securities Daily Buy-Side Comprehensive Index

Optimism about Chinese securities markets overseas is on the rise
Dongzi Securities 2024–10–14 9:30:00
Today, Dongzi Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Long Index” recorded 62.2, up 1.8% from the previous trading day, showing that investors’ optimism about the overseas Chinese securities market is on the rise.

William Blair fund managers pointed out: “The scale of the stimulus measures is indeed important, as the market has high expectations for this. But what is more critical is that, given the existence of a large number of unused fiscal policy tools, we are closely watching the specific implementation of these stimulus measures.” In anticipation of the imminent announcement of new fiscal stimulus policies, Bank of America corporate strategist Michael Hartnett offered a suggestion: investors should take advantage of the weakness in China’s stock market to buy.
However, a different scene is presented in China’s domestic environment. According to the latest semi-official index data, China’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are currently facing severe challenges, and their economic performance is still significantly behind the level before the 2019 epidemic. Specifically, the SME Development Index plunged to 88.7 in September, which is not only the lowest point in the past year, but also far below the quarterly average level of 92.9 before the 2019 epidemic. This data clearly shows the difficulties faced by SMEs in recovering and developing.
What is more worrying is that the growth rate of China’s exports in September may have reached the lowest level in five months. This phenomenon may indicate that global demand for Chinese goods is gradually weakening, and also reflects manufacturers’ more cautious order behavior under the pressure of tariffs imposed by multiple trading partners.
Moreover, domestic demand in China remains subdued, with consumer and business confidence failing to recover effectively, and even showing signs of deflation. This pressure may lead to further slowdown in consumption and investment, thus forming a vicious cycle, which poses a potential threat to the long-term healthy development of the economy.
In summary, although optimism about Chinese securities markets overseas is on the rise,